Non-Degree Workers Are Having Their Best Job Market in Decades — College Grads Aren't So Lucky

New numbers reveal a surprising twist in the job market: the workers usually seen as having it hardest are suddenly thriving, while degree-holders are the ones struggling.

For years, going to college appeared to be the best bet for getting a good job. Right now, that's not exactly true.

According to a new analysis by the Burning Glass Institute, workers between the ages of 22 and 34 who don’t have a college degree are seeing better chances of employment than they have in 20 years.

On the other hand, college graduates are experiencing one of the toughest times for finding jobs, next to the pandemic and the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.

This is not to say that a college degree isn’t useful in the job hunt these days. In fact, there is only a 2.7% unemployment rate for degree holders, compared to 3.6% for people with some college and 4.7% for high school grads only.

But comparing these rates to the past, there appears to be a flip. Workers without degrees are doing unusually well for themselves, while college grads are doing unusually badly for themselves.

The reason partly comes down to supply and demand. Older tradespeople are retiring, so jobs like construction, repair, and food service are in high demand, and there aren't enough workers to fill them.

At the same time, more Americans have college degrees than ever, all competing for entry-level office jobs that are becoming scarce since AI is now doing a lot of the basic work that used to go to new grads.

Bloomberg Businessweek spoke to more than a dozen recent grads job-hunting this year, describing a market so tough that job openings had dropped to their lowest point since 2020. One Wall Street Journal story followed a business grad who sent out 70 applications and only landed three interviews.

So while a diploma still opens more doors on paper, right now it's not guaranteeing much. And for a lot of young people skipping college, the job market might actually be working in their favor.